VP race

VP race the one to watch
INSIGHT

By JOCELINE TAN
A record total of 15 people are interested in the three Umno vice-president posts. It will be an urgent race because among them will be someone fit to be the next deputy prime minister.

ARE you going for it?” Home Minister Datuk Seri Syed Hamid Albar has been asked that question so often that friends have told him that he might as well say, “Yes.”

The question concerns the contest for the Umno vice-presidency and Syed Hamid is aware that his standard reply of “I have not decided,” is making him sound like an old CD.

“I don't have the heart to make a commitment yet because the party is still faced with so many complex issues. As I've told some people, what is the point of winning the battle and losing the war? We need to return the party to good health,” said Syed Hamid.

If and when Syed Hamid decides to jump into the ring, he will find it rather crowded.

To date, there are a total of 14 people who have indicated that they are “offering themselves” (the politically correct phrase for contesting) for the post.

There are three slots for the vice-presidency and would-be candidates need the endorsement of at least 10% of the 191 Umno divisions or 19 nominations. This will happen when the divisions meet beginning October. Hence, the process of offering oneself is actually a way of telling the Umno members to “please nominate me”.

The contest has taken on a new urgency now that both the Umno president and deputy president have committed to a handover of power in 2010. If things go according to plan, Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak will succeed Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi as Umno president and Prime Minister by the middle of 2010.

There will be a vacancy then for deputy prime minister, which, by tradition, has always been filled by one of the vice-presidents.

Given that, the contest for the Umno vice-presidency in December will also be about choosing the next deputy prime minister.

“Succession was not an issue at the last party election, so delegates felt free to vote for candidates whom they liked and whom they thought were nice guys. Real leadership qualities were not the main consideration. This time they will be choosing leaders who can step into the deputy prime minister's post,” said Batu Kawan Umno chief Datuk Seri Dr Ibrahim Saad.

This means that delegates would have to consider candidates with the ability to lead Umno in a changed political landscape. He would not only have to be someone who understands domestic politics and issues but also global challenges.

In the 2004 Umno elections, the two “nice guys” who did well were Malacca Chief Minister Datuk Mohd Ali Rustam and then Federal Territory Minister Tan Sri Mohd Isa Abdul Samad who was subsequently disqualified over money politics issues. They were not seen as deputy prime minister material yet they came in ahead of Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin in the 2004 race for vice-president.

Likeable faces
Mohd Ali and Mohd Isa did well because they were likeable, generous and accessible. Muhyiddin, now International Trade and Industry Minister, was stunned to come in third.

Not everyone named (see list) is likely to qualify as a candidate because it is not easy to secure 19 nominations. At least half of those on the list are likely to drop out along the way.

But it is a rather high-powered list that includes eight ministers and four Mentris Besar/Chief Ministers. Their ages range from a relatively youthful 46-year-old (Datuk Seri Hishammuddin Tun Hussein) to a seasoned 66-year-old (Datuk Seri Rais Yatim).

Should Syed Hamid join the race, he would be, at 64, the second-most mature candidate after Rais.

But as the Home Minister was quick to add: “There should be a good mix of the youth and the experienced among the VPs.”

At the same time, said supreme council member Datuk Dr Latiff Ahmad, a young face in the line-up will help the leadership narrow the generation gap with young Malays out there.

“Politicians are also like consumer products. We have to stay relevant and up to date,” said Dr Latiff.

Senior and veteran names dominate the list of vice-president hopefuls but the indications are that the younger and newer faces are likely to have an easier time than the older and more established names.

Even at this early stage, first-time hopeful and Minister in the Prime Minister's Department Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi is said to be ahead while incumbent Mohd Ali is leading among the senior faces.

Their campaign machinery is said to have started.

The irony is that prior to the announcement of the transition plan, many divisions had been prepared to nominate Muhyiddin for the deputy president post.

But everything has changed and Muhyiddin is now left in the lurch.

He can either fight for a fourth term as vice-president or he can take a massive risk and move up the scale to challenge the president or the deputy president.

He has been the only top gun who was openly critical of the 2010 transition.

The Umno leadership ought to know by now that while Umno members do not reject the transition plan, they are not exactly thrilled about it. They respect Abdullah for committing to an exit plan and they are relieved that there is now a specific date but they do not like the extended time frame.

Muhyiddin may have been critical for his own ambitious reasons but his views on the transition certainly reflect those of a large number of people in the party.

He was tight-lipped when he returned from an official trip to Japan on Friday night, telling reporters that he had no further comment on the matter.

Experienced voice
Still, he is not exactly a gone case. He is recognised as an experienced and independent voice in Umno especially in the last few months. He may also find support among those who were upset that the leadership transition had been decided by two men behind closed doors and who may now want a vice-president who dares to speak out and provide a check and balance.

But the vice-president race is very complex and rarely objective. The best and most able do not always win and those who want it have to really campaign, spend money and turn on the charm.

Muhyiddin is not short of energy or money and he can be charming in his own way. But this time around he will find himself fighting candidates who are not only younger but who are hungrier and more ambitious for the post.

The race has begun and it will be a race to watch.